Bitcoin Cycle Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical point in its current cycle, diverging from past halving patterns. Unlike previous cycles, strong rallies have been more uncertain, influenced by macroeconomic shifts and institutional impacts.

Political factors, including Trump’s pro-crypto stance and state-level Bitcoin adoption, introduce new dynamics. The question remains: Has Bitcoin topped this cycle, or is there potential for another rally beyond $100,000?

Has BTC Detached From Other Cycles?

Bitcoin currently seems to be diverging from its historical cycles, showing a different price trajectory compared to past halvings. Historically, strong rallies followed halvings, particularly in the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 cycles. In this cycle, however, Bitcoin surged in late 2024, consolidated in early 2025, and corrected by late February.

This contrasts with prior cycles characterized by aggressive post-halving rallies. Macro factors, market structure changes, and increased institutional investor presence may be altering Bitcoin’s traditional dynamics. Bitcoin is now perceived as a more mature asset class, influencing its price movements.

Bitcoin Cycles Comparison

Another significant factor is the diminishing strength of Bitcoin’s surges as cycles progress. Past exponential rallies vastly outstripped those of the current cycle, reflecting Bitcoin’s growing market capitalization and the influence of institutional investors. In the long term, this may lead to more stability and structured market behavior.

Despite recognizing consolidation periods in previous cycles prior to resuming uptrends, this cycle could unfold differently, possibly resulting in less volatility and more sustainable price appreciation.

Long-Term Holder MVRV Signals a Shift in Cycle Dynamics

The Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio indicates diminishing returns across Bitcoin cycles. The 2016-2020 cycle had a peak of 35.8 in LTH MVRV, while the 2020-2024 cycle peaked at 12.2, and the current cycle has only reached 4.35. This trend suggests decreasing unrealized profits for long-term holders and compressed upside potential over time.

The maturation of Bitcoin may indicate less explosive growth phases have occurred in the current cycle while not entirely dismissing future spikes if institutional participation leads to prolonged accumulation rather than blow-off tops.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook

Despite current cycle differences, experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future potential, especially with increasing state-level adoption. Harrison Seletsky from SPACE ID highlights the cautious optimism surrounding the White House Crypto Summit and mentions Texas’s new bill allowing state-controlled crypto reserves could influence other states.

Yet, Nic Puckrin, founder of The Coin Bureau, points to the gap between investor expectations and the reality of government involvement in Bitcoin purchases. This discrepancy may have prompted recent price corrections.

Historical comparisons are less reliable now, with new factors like institutional adoption, Trump’s crypto stance, and geopolitical shifts complicating the landscape. Despite uncertainty, the Bitcoin cycle may not be over yet, as it adapts to a broader financial context beyond halving cycles.