Global Oil Price Outlook for 2025

By Florence Tan, Emily Chow and Siyi Liu

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Global oil prices are expected to remain in the $70 to $80 per barrel range in 2025, consistent with 2024 levels, according to Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader. He stated this on Thursday, attributing the uncertainty to geopolitical risks affecting supply.

Concerns regarding the potential unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 and China's weak oil demand growth also contribute to capping world oil prices, despite risks of supply disruption in the Middle East.

Hardy noted, "There's clearly a little bit of concern about the balances for 2025 and that's what's driving the market today," during his remarks at the FT Commodities Asia Summit.

Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Middle East, Iranian, and Venezuelan exports under the new U.S. Trump presidency add to the uncertainty. Hardy expressed that it's too early to conclude that the market will be oversupplied in 2025.

China may face a squeeze on cheap Iranian crude supplies, comprising about 13% of its oil imports, if Trump enforces sanctions on Tehran upon his expected return as U.S. president in January.

Janet Kong, CEO of Hengli Petrochemical International in Singapore, mentioned a current global spare oil capacity of 4 million barrels per day (bpd), alleviating supply concerns. She anticipates that fuel demand growth in China and India, the second and third-largest oil consumers, will support global oil prices in 2025.

Chinese refining utilization rates have dropped below 80%, a notably low rate. Kong stated that refining margins in China are unlikely to recover soon.

Hardy predicted that China’s oil demand would grow by 700,000 bpd in 2025, remarking that while this growth won't match the surge seen in previous years, it's a return to more typical growth following pandemic recovery.