OPEC+ Panel Meeting Overview

By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, and Maha El Dahan
LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters)

An OPEC+ panel is not expected to propose changes to its production cuts during this week's meeting, according to five sources. The online joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) meeting is scheduled for Wednesday at 1200 GMT.

One source indicated, "Although the oil market situation is a bit complicated, I do not expect a new decision or any change to the OPEC+ agreement in Wednesday's meeting." Oil prices have seen a decline in 2024, with Brent crude dipping below $70 per barrel for the first time since 2021 due to concerns over global demand and increased supply outside OPEC+. On Tuesday, Brent was trading close to $71.

Currently, OPEC+ is cutting output by 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), equating to roughly 5.7% of global demand, under agreements made since late 2022. The latest plan includes a proposed increase in output by 180,000 bpd starting December, aimed at unwinding recent voluntary cuts by 2025.

Compliance with these cuts will be a key discussion point at the meeting, particularly addressing Iraq and Kazakhstan's compensation cuts of 123,000 bpd.

A source mentioned that successful compensation cuts in September would help allow for the planned December increase. However, analysts warn that non-compliance could lead to faster unwinding of cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members.

The JMMC, consisting of oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other leading producers, typically convenes every two months to evaluate policy adjustments.