Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Not Yet Started

Bitcoin may have yet to kick off its bull market cycle, according to prominent Bitcoin maximalist and researcher Tuur Demeester.

“In a way, the bitcoin bull market hasn’t even started yet,” Demeester wrote on X on Thursday, March 13.

The analyst’s rationale for this lies in the chart of Bitcoin expressed in gold. He shared the monthly candlestick for Bitcoin against gold chart, highlighting that the Bitcoin bull market has only really kicked off after the digital asset had registered a clean break of its all-time against the precious metal. He pointed out that this pattern played out in 2017 and 2021.

Presently, this all-time high turned resistance is within the 36-ounce to 40-ounce range, or about 1 kg to 1.1 kg. Demeester argued that this could be Bitcoin’s inflection point in 2025.

Interestingly, zooming out on a log chart, Bitcoin appears to be replicating its price action against gold just before its nearly 20x rally in 2017.

Demeester highlighted that a break above the 36 ounces to 40 ounces, or 1 kg to 1.1 kg range, could take Bitcoin near 353 ounces, or about 10 kg of gold.

At current rates, 10 kg of gold is worth over $945,000. This represents an over 10x price potential for Bitcoin from its current price of about $83,300.

Demeester’s analysis comes as the market appears jaded amid uncertainty sparked by geopolitical concerns. This prevailing uncertainty has not even been lifted by recent data suggesting cooling inflation in the U.S.