Bitcoin’s Upside Potential

The head of digital assets research at exchange-traded fund issuer VanEck, Matthew Sigel, asserts that Bitcoin (BTC) holds significant upside potential.

In a recent interview on the David Lin report, Sigel mentioned that Bitcoin could experience an approximate 87% increase from its current level within the year, given its historical performance during past cycles.

> “In the near term, we do tend to assume that the four-year cycle will hold until the market tells us otherwise. The most explosive part of the Bitcoin cycle typically occurs in the one year following a halving.”

Sigel referred to the last halving, which occurred in April of the previous year, noting a favorable election-related run-up. He believes that 2025 may also be a strong year for Bitcoin.

While acknowledging that each cycle has demonstrated decreasing returns, Sigel noted that the smallest cycle previously recorded yielded an increase of 2,000% from its lowest to highest points (from around $3,200 to $69,000).

“If we assume a 1,000% price return, that would estimate Bitcoin at approximately $180,000 for this cycle, which is our base case… my best guess is that a 1,000% rise from trough to peak is reasonable for this cycle, likely peaking in Q4 of this year.”

Furthermore, Sigel suggested that Bitcoin could achieve even higher valuations in the medium term if it gains traction as a reserve asset.

> “Over the medium term, we benchmark this asset against gold, specifically the 50% of the gold market used for speculation rather than jewelry and industrial uses. If Bitcoin surpasses the 50% gold market cap, it could target prices up to $450,000.”

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $96,173.

Generated Image: Midjourney