Bitcoin (BTC) Performance in Q1 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) has been underperforming against high expectations for late 2024 during the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.

After briefly reaching new all-time highs (ATH) above $109,000, the world’s leading cryptocurrency saw a significant retracement. Currently, Bitcoin is down 11.98% year-to-date (YTD) and trading at $82,264.

Despite the lackluster performance, Bitcoin recently recovered 5.84% from March 11 lows of nearly $77,500, sparking some hope for an upcoming rally. However, this trend may also indicate a descending pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

To gain insights into Bitcoin’s prospects, Finbold consulted Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) new Gemma 3 model, purportedly as advanced as DeepSeek but operating on a single GPU, for a forecast on BTC’s status by Easter 2025.

Gemma 3’s Analysis of Bitcoin’s Path to Easter 2025

Unfortunately, the prediction provided by Gemma 3 resembled older AI models. It highlighted the post-halving cycle, asserting that the consequences of the April 2024 halving would likely begin to manifest by Easter. Historically, the year following a halving has shown significant price increases due to the supply shock created by the halving event.

Key Factors for Bullish Sentiment

• Post-Halving Cycle: Previously noted that the true effects of the supply shock appear months post-halving.
• ETF Growth and Adoption: Continual growth in exchange-traded funds could serve as a positive influence on BTC.
• Technological Advancements: Emerging layer-2 solutions and advancements are viewed positively.
• Institutional Adoption: Increased institutional involvement remains bullish.
• Macroeconomic Conditions: Expectations of controlled inflation and lowered interest rates could enhance optimism.
• Regulatory Clarity: More defined regulations may buoy prices, though these points were labeled as ‘hopefully.’
• Safe-Haven Asset Status: Gemma 3 still regards Bitcoin as a safe-haven despite recent challenges.

Bearish Risks for Bitcoin

Gemma 3 identified potential bearish factors that could negatively impact Bitcoin:
– Regulatory Crackdown: An unexpected severe regulation against the cryptocurrency sector could hinder progress.
– Competitive Landscape: Increased competition from other cryptocurrencies could weaken Bitcoin’s position.
– Economic Recession: A significant downturn in the economy could adversely affect BTC prices.
– Black Swan Events: Unforeseen catastrophic events could negatively sway Bitcoin’s market.
– Prolonged Sell-off: A lengthy decrease in prices could exert further downward pressure.

Gemma 3’s Price Target for Easter 2025

After assessing Bitcoin’s situation in March 2025, Gemma 3 estimates that the cryptocurrency will trade between $85,000 and $150,000 by Easter:
– $85,000: A conservative estimate accounting for potential setbacks and slower adoption.
– $150,000: An optimistic outlook assumes prevailing bullish factors and strong ETF inflows, alongside accelerating institutional adoption.

This price target suggests a potential BTC rally ranging from 3.33% to 82.34%.