By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve’s blackout period on public comments regarding U.S. central bank meetings ends on Friday after a significant interest rate decision earlier this week. Governor Chris Waller will appear on CNBC at 11:30 a.m. EDT (1530 GMT).
The Fed reduced its overnight interest rate by half a percentage point on Wednesday, surpassing the expectations of some policymakers ahead of the two-day meeting.
Waller aligned with the majority supporting the substantial half-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs, marking the first dissent from a Fed Board member since 2005. Governor Michelle Bowman preferred a smaller quarter-percentage-point cut.
Following the unexpected rate decrease, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record highs, buoyed by anticipation of more benign monetary policy, despite economic projections suggesting the decision was closer than indicated by Bowman’s dissent.
U.S. Treasury yields, which have increased since the Fed’s meeting ignited a risk-on wave across markets, were slightly higher again on Friday.
Statements from Waller and other Fed officials in the ensuing days may shed light on the rationale behind the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate-setting decision.
Over three-quarters of economists surveyed in a Reuters poll anticipate the Fed will further cut its benchmark rate by another half percentage point this year to the 4.25%-4.50% range, with quarter-percentage-point reductions expected at the November and December meetings.
Investors in contracts linked to the Fed’s policy rate predict a more aggressive easing trajectory, expecting an additional 25 basis points by the close of 2024.
Overall, the central bank may be considering a quicker transition from restrictive monetary policy to a neutral stance, according to David Mericle, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist. He stated, “The greater urgency suggested by … (the) 50-bp cut and the acceleration in the pace of cuts that most (policymakers) projected for 2025 makes a longer series of consecutive cuts the most likely path.”
According to Mericle, a series of consecutive 25-bp cuts is expected from November 2024 through June 2025, bringing the funds rate to a terminal forecast of 3.25%-3.50%.
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