Interest Rate Cut Expectations
(Reuters) — J.P. Morgan and BofA Global Research have joined major brokerages predicting a 25 basis point reduction in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates in November.
BofA and J.P. Morgan have revised their estimates down to 25 bps from 50 bps after strong U.S. nonfarm payroll data indicated a resilient economy.
Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Macquarie, and Deutsche Bank confirmed their forecasts for a 25 bps cut in both November and December.
Forecasts from Major Brokerages After the Jobs Report
| Brokerage | Nov | Dec | 2025 Fed Funds Rate at End of 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 25 | 25 | 3.0%-3.25% |
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 25 | 3.25%-3.50% |
| Barclays | 25 | 25 | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Macquarie | 25 | 25 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 25 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
| J.P. Morgan | 25 | 25 | 3.0% (through September 2025) |
| UBS Global Wealth | 50 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% |
Note: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in the UBS Group.
Forecasts from Major Brokerages Before the Jobs Data
| Brokerage | Nov | Dec | 2025 Fed Funds Rate at End of 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 50 | 25 | 3.0%-3.25% |
| UBS Global Wealth | 50 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% |
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 25 | 3.25%-3.50% |
| Barclays | 25 | 25 | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Morgan Stanley | 25 | 25 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
| Macquarie | 25 | 25 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 25 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
| Citigroup | 50 | 25 | |
| J.P. Morgan | 50 | 25 | |
| HSBC | 25 | 25 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
Note: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in the UBS Group.
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