Ethereum Market Update

ETH has declined by 29% over the past month.
Ethereum dips below its Realized Price as bearish sentiments persist.

Over the past day, Ethereum (ETH) has experienced strong downward pressure, dropping to reach the October 2023 level of $1754. However, since then, the altcoin has made a moderate recovery to reach $1876 as of this writing. This marked a 29.01% decline over the past month.

As ETH declined, it dropped below its realized price for the first time in two years. This decline suggests that average investors are now holding ETH at unrealized losses. Ethereum’s drop to this level risks capitulation, as long-term holders start to panic sell, fearing further decline.

Equally, the drop suggests that ETH is experiencing extreme bearish sentiment, with investors continuing to sell, leading to strong downward pressure.

Looking at exchange flows, it seems this dip arises from significant selling activity. Over the past two days, ETH has recorded positive exchange inflows with over 100k ETH tokens sent to exchanges. This suggests that investors have been actively selling the altcoin to cut their losses.

Markets have recorded two consecutive days of positive exchange net flow. When this turns positive, it indicates more inflows to exchanges than withdrawals, reflecting strong bearish sentiment.

This sentiment is also highly prevalent among whales. In fact, Ethereum’s Large Holders Netflow to Exchange Netflow Ratio has surged over the past day to hit 79%. Such a huge spike suggests that whales are actively sending their holdings to exchanges in preparation to sell. When whale exchange inflow rises, it implies a lack of market confidence where long-term large holders fear further losses.

Finally, Ethereum’s fund market premium has remained negative for a sustained period. Investors have remained bearish, indicating low institutional or whale demand for ETH. Thus, markets are seeing a risk-off sentiment.

What’s next for ETH?

The current market conditions position ETH for more losses on its price charts unless positive events bring speculative demand for a rebound. However, when prices drop below the realized price, it offers a potentially perfect buying opportunity and has historically yielded significant returns. Therefore, with strong bearish sentiments holding in the market, ETH must reclaim $2058, which is the realized price, for a potential upside reversal. Failure to reclaim this level means the next support for the altcoin is $1440.