Mike McGlone’s Market Predictions

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently shared insights on social media regarding the expected market conditions later this year. He notes that leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are in a significant decline, suggesting a tough year ahead for risk assets in the US.

Predictions for US Stock Market and Risk Assets

McGlone tweeted that Bitcoin’s fall below $80,000 and Ethereum’s dip under $2,000 could signal a trend of “reciprocal underperformance” in US risk assets. He anticipates a reversion to multidecade lows in commodity prices compared to the US stock market, which he argues is overvalued after reaching its peak at the end of 2024. McGlone hints at a bearish outlook for cryptocurrencies in 2025, noting the parallel movement of crypto and US stocks.

> Bitcoin’s Slump, Sub-$2,000 Ether vs. Gold, Commodities, Stocks – Falling #cryptos could be pointing to 2025 as the start of reciprocal underperformance in historically elevated US risk assets. I view reversion of the multidecade lows in broad #commodities vs. the US… source

Despite not explicitly stating it, McGlone contrasts crypto and stocks with commodities and gold, which he predicts will perform well.

Gold ETFs Experiencing Inflows vs Bitcoin ETFs

In a recent tweet, McGlone compared the performance of gold to that of Bitcoin, sharing a chart showing that the Bitcoin-to-gold Ratio has likely peaked. He noted that, after four consecutive years of outflows, gold ETFs have begun to see inflows in 2025, suggesting a change in risk appetites among investors.

> Bitcoin/Gold Cross May Have Peaked, With Implications – After four years of outflows, #gold #ETFs have turned decisively to inflows in 2025, potentially signaling a shift in risk appetites. source

The chart indicates that gold ETFs are experiencing increased inflows following a long-term decline since 2022, signaling a possible shift in investor sentiment away from Bitcoin and towards gold. This aligns with McGlone’s observations about the current trend of moving from risk assets to more traditional investments.