Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders’ Losses

Bitcoin’s short-term holders are at the same loss level as in August 2024. The MVRV ratio, combined with the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, provides insight into market sentiment and potential reversals.

Bitcoin (BTC) has always played a central role in shaping investment trends. As of March 2025, Bitcoin’s price movements mirrored past cycles, particularly the downturn in August 2024, while diverging from the more severe declines of 2021.

The accumulation of Bitcoin at $84,000 by short-term holders, despite an STH Realized Price of $92,780, marked a crucial inflection point. Many investors entered late in the cycle, purchasing at inflated levels above $90,000. This trend, alongside the analysis of Bitcoin’s supply age bands and MVRV metrics, offers valuable insights into the ongoing market structure. Understanding these indicators is essential for traders navigating the delicate balance between bearish dominance and potential bullish reversals.

Moreover, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price and STH-MVRV chart showed Bitcoin’s price accumulation at $84,000, significantly lower than the STH Realized Price of $92,780. This $8,780 discrepancy indicated that many short-term holders were operating at a loss, resembling the August 2024 pattern when Bitcoin fell to $70,000 before rebounding. From mid-2024 to early 2025, the STH Realized Price climbed from $65,000 to $92,780, reflecting late-cycle buying behavior at inflated prices. This trend suggested that traders who entered the market at $90,000 or higher were now experiencing unrealized losses.

If Bitcoin reclaims $92,780, it could regain bullish momentum, potentially testing the $100,000 mark. However, failure to hold above $80,000 might deepen selling pressure, leading to a retest of the $70,000 level. Traders must closely monitor these levels, as historical dips, such as the $75,000 drop in late 2024, often preceded strong rebounds.

Bitcoin’s Liquidity Implications

Further, BTC’s supply age bands, spanning 2012 to 2025, provide clarity on market trends. The 5-10 year cohort peaked at 8 million BTC in 2021, while the 1-3 month supply band reached 4 million BTC in 2024 during the rally to $100,000. This distribution shift suggests long-term holders retained a strong grip on supply, while newer coins aged as the market matured. By early 2025, the 6-12 month bands stabilized at 3 million BTC, indicating that a significant portion of Bitcoin had transitioned to long-term holders. This pattern closely resembled the 2017 cycle, where rapid accumulation eventually led to a sharp correction. If Bitcoin surpasses $100,000, the younger supply bands could experience renewed activity, pushing fresh liquidity into the market. Conversely, prolonged price suppression below $80,000 could lead to further aging of supply, extending bearish conditions.

Market Sentiment and Newcomer Behavior

Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, combined with the STH Realized Price, provides insight into market sentiment and potential reversals. From 2020 to 2025, Bitcoin’s MVRV fluctuated between 0.5 and 2.5. The metric peaked at 2.2 in mid-2024 before declining to 1.5 by March 2025. Historically, MVRV values above 2.0 have signaled overvaluation, often preceding corrections, while values closer to 1.0 indicate accumulation opportunities. As Bitcoin’s STH Realized Price surged from $40,000 in 2021 to $92,780 in 2025, it reflected increasing market optimism. However, this growth paralleled past overvaluation cycles, such as in 2021 when MVRV exceeded 2.0 before a major correction. New traders, often influenced by media hype and influencer-driven speculation, bought Bitcoin at $95,000, disregarding MVRV warnings at 1.5. If MVRV reclaims 2.5 alongside increased buying volume, Bitcoin could retest $120,000. However, if it drops toward 1.0, it may signal a deeper decline, potentially revisiting the $70,000 range.