Altcoin Market Update

At the start of 2025, several altcoins surged to new all-time highs, riding the wave of a Donald Trump-fueled rally that swept through the crypto market.

However, Trump’s escalating trade wars and broader macroeconomic unrest have led to a significant downturn in many altcoins, raising questions about the timing of the next altcoin season.

Altcoin Season Slips Further Away

Altcoin season refers to a market cycle where crypto assets other than Bitcoin significantly outperform BTC in price gains. Many altcoins experience price surges during this period due to increased investor speculation, capital rotation from BTC into other crypto assets, and overall bullish market sentiment.

This cycle commences when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform BTC over a three-month period. However, this is not the current reality. The Altcoin Index, which tracks this trend, has plunged to its lowest level since October 2024, signaling continued weakness in the sector.

As of now, only 24% of top altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days, underscoring its dominance in the current market. This persistent underperformance suggests that an altcoin season may still be far off.

Further reinforcing this bearish outlook, TOTAL2, which tracks the total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding BTC, has remained in a descending parallel channel since the start of the year.

This pattern indicates a sustained downtrend, formed when an asset’s price moves between two downward-sloping parallel trendlines, creating lower highs and lower lows over time. Currently, TOTAL2 is valued at $1.14 trillion, having dropped 17% since January 1. This decline confirms a lack of strong bullish momentum across the altcoin market, hinting at minimal chances of an altcoin season beginning soon.

Bitcoin Dominance Climbs as Market Pullback Deepens

While the market has undergone a significant pullback amid Trump’s trade wars, Bitcoin dominance has continued to rise. A daily chart assessment of Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) reveals this trend.

Bitcoin dominance measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin controls, remaining above an ascending trend line since last December. As of now, it sits at 61.29%.

If Bitcoin’s dominance remains high, it could further delay the prospects of an altcoin season.