ADB Forecast for Developing Asia’s Economic Growth
MANILA (Reuters) – Developing Asia is projected to grow 5% this year, fueled by strong consumption and a high demand for tech exports, as stated by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday. China is expected to implement additional economic support measures.
In its latest Asian Development Outlook report, the ADB kept most growth projections for the region unchanged since its July report, maintaining a growth outlook for developing Asia at 5.0% for this year and 4.9% for next year.
The ADB has revised its inflation forecasts for developing Asia, which includes 46 countries in the Asia-Pacific, to 2.8% for this year and 2.9% for next year, down from previous forecasts of 2.9% and 3.0%.
However, the ADB highlighted some risks that could derail this outlook, such as rising protectionism, geopolitical tensions, adverse weather, and a decline in China’s property market.
China, as the world’s second-largest economy, is currently facing deflationary pressures and is struggling to enhance growth despite several policy measures aimed at boosting domestic spending.
On Tuesday, China’s central bank announced broad monetary stimulus and property market support as it attempts to restore economic confidence. ADB Chief Economist Albert Park mentioned that the effectiveness of these measures is uncertain due to ongoing structural issues in the property sector, suggesting that governmental action is necessary.
Despite concerns about deflation, Park does not believe it poses an immediate threat, expecting price recovery.
Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve initiated its easing cycle with a notable 50 basis point rate cut, providing central banks more flexibility to ease their monetary policies as well.
The ADB maintains its growth forecast for China at 4.8% for 2024, which is less than the government’s official target of around 5%. It also forecasts growth of 4.5% for 2025, based on the assumption that fiscal and monetary easing will help sustain the economy.
Growth Forecasts
| Region | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caucasus and Central Asia | 5.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| East Asia | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| China | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| South Asia | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.9 |
| India | 8.2 | 7.0 | 7.2 |
| Southeast Asia | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Malaysia | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Myanmar | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Philippines | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
| Singapore | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Thailand | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Vietnam | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Developing Asia | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
Inflation Rates
| Region | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caucasus and Central Asia | 7.9 | 7.6 | 6.2 |
| East Asia | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| China | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| South Asia | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.1 |
| India | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 |
| Southeast Asia | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Indonesia | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Malaysia | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Myanmar | 22.0 | 15.5 | 10.2 |
| Philippines | 6.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| Singapore | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| Thailand | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Vietnam | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| The Pacific | 3.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Developing Asia | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
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