The Crypto Market Update

The crypto market remains under pressure as investors react to economic uncertainties and ongoing trade war concerns. Bitcoin, currently trading around $84,000, has experienced a period of correction alongside the broader crypto market, with total market capitalization climbing 2.44% to $2.76 trillion. While some sellers are exiting, uncertainty remains over whether the current rebound can hold.

Every Bitcoin Bear Market Since 2015

Since 2015, there have been 10 Bitcoin bear markets, defined as a 20% decline from an all-time high (ATH). About one every year, these are common. Of those, only 4 have been worse than this one in terms of duration: 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.

Analyst Predicts a 90-Day Bear Market

Market analyst Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin’s recent downturn is relatively mild compared to past bear markets. Defined as a 20% drop from an ATH, this pullback is weaker in magnitude than historical declines and is expected to last only 90 days. Peterson analyzed ten previous bear markets, noting that only four were worse in terms of duration.

He argues that despite short-term price drops, Bitcoin’s adoption trends remain strong, making a deep decline below $50,000 unlikely. He also suggests that BTC may not fall below $80,000 based on momentum. Peterson predicts a possible slide over the next 30 days, followed by a 20-40% rally after April 15, potentially pushing Bitcoin to new highs.

Trade War Fears Impact Investor Sentiment

The recent decline is caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on multiple trading partners, triggering retaliatory measures across the globe and leading to fears of a prolonged trade war. Investors are now moving away from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, as macroeconomic conditions are unfavorable.

Meanwhile, data from Glassnode’s Hot Supply metric shows a sharp decline from 5.9% in November 2024 to 2.3% in March 2025. This suggests a drop in speculative trading, highlighting weak market sentiment. Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst from Nansen, warns that crypto markets may face trade war-related pressures until at least April 2025.

Retail Traders Already Invested, Limiting Further Gains

Another factor weighing on Bitcoin’s price is the lack of fresh retail investment. According to CryptoQuant, most retail traders are already exposed to BTC, diminishing hopes of a sudden influx of capital to drive prices higher.

Additionally, the narrative of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset is being challenged, as its price has reacted negatively to tariff news, falling alongside other risk assets. Regulatory challenges persist, with experts predicting that U.S. crypto banking restrictions could last until January 2026, despite efforts for clearer regulations.