U.S. LNG Exports Estimated to Rise 2% in 2023

By Curtis Williams and Scott DiSavino

HOUSTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in 2023 are projected to increase by about 2%, the smallest annual growth since 2016, when the first significant U.S. LNG export plant commenced operations. This marked the beginning of a boom that propelled the U.S. to become one of the top gas exporters globally.

Factors Behind Slower Growth

The limited rise in exports is attributed to production outages and delays in project completions. Notably, no new facilities have begun operations since the Calcasieu Pass project by Venture Global LNG launched in March 2022.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that this year’s export volumes are expected to reach 12.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), a stark decline from a 12% increase in 2022 and an average growth rate of 43% from 2018 to 2022.

Dollar Value of Exports

The dollar value of U.S. LNG exports peaked at $47.33 billion in 2022 due to soaring prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, the value dropped to $34.27 billion last year, according to U.S. government data.

Future Projections

Expectations suggest that growth will accelerate in 2024, with a forecasted increase of about 14%, raising estimated exports to 13.8 bcfd by 2025. Analysts predict U.S. LNG capacity could more than double in the next four years, reaching approximately 17.8 bcfd next year and 24.5 bcfd by 2028.

Upcoming Projects

The U.S. currently hosts seven major LNG export plants capable of processing 13.8 bcfd of natural gas for export. Since 2023, it has held the title of the world’s largest exporter of superchilled gas.

The forecast for 2024 includes contributions from two projects set to launch by year-end: Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass expansion in Texas and Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility in Louisiana.

However, a contractor's bankruptcy has postponed the initiation of a third project, the QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil joint venture, Golden Pass. While the partners anticipate the first LNG delivery in the latter half of next year, some experts believe delays could extend into 2026.

Maintenance Challenges

This year’s growth was further restricted by maintenance outages at the second-largest U.S. export facility, Freeport LNG’s 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas, which saw its output reduce by over 50% for nearly four months starting mid-January.

Jason Feer, Head of Business Intelligence at Poten and Partners, emphasized the challenges of regaining operational momentum during such disruptions.