Earnings Season Shows Stronger Stock Gains

Investing.com — Earnings beats in the ongoing Q3 reporting season are leading to stronger stock gains compared to previous quarters, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.

So far, with 14% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, the market has shown a clear distinction in performance following earnings per share (EPS) beats or misses. Notably, stocks outperforming expectations saw a median increase of 2.3% the day after reporting, a clear rise compared to the 0.8% increase over the previous four quarters.

> “This is important because the 3Q consensus EPS estimate was down notably in the 3 months leading up to earnings season (-4%) driven by cyclical industries,” Morgan Stanley strategists said in a Monday note.

“In other words, the bar has been lowered into earnings season for cyclical pockets in particular, and stocks are being rewarded for clearing that lowered bar – Financials were the first example of this and groups such as Capital Goods and Consumer Services could follow.”

Morgan Stanley also noted that while the consensus estimate for 2024 earnings has decreased, aligning more closely with their own estimate of $239, the consensus for 2025 has recently declined as well.

However, the trend for 2025 earnings revisions is showing a deviation from historical seasonality, which could signal a stabilization as the year ends.

This divergence is seen as a positive sign “and may help to explain why equity prices have held up well despite September into October often being a seasonal period of elevated volatility,” strategists said.

Moreover, Morgan Stanley’s team said it remains confident in its recent shift toward Cyclicals and the upgrade of the Financials sector.

Strategists point out that Cyclicals, particularly Financials, have performed strongly in recent weeks, with Financials emerging as the top-performing sector in the S&P 500.

Their October upgrade was driven by increased capital markets activity, a favorable setup for earnings season, and attractive valuations.

Earnings results so far have supported this view, with 92% of large-cap banks under Morgan Stanley's coverage beating operating EPS estimates and all surpassing revenue expectations.

Capital markets results have been “particularly encouraging,” strategists wrote, with the momentum building into 2025.