UK Economic Growth Forecast

Investing.com – The final estimate of UK growth this year is due on Friday, and Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) expects a limited rebound as we enter the last quarter, following a weak September.

The German bank anticipates that UK gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 0.1% month-on-month in October, bouncing back after a 0.1% decline in September.

> "Services activity we think will remain tempered by a pull back in retail spending. Manufacturing output will likely remain sluggish given the ongoing global slowdown. Construction activity will likely grow — but we don’t expect a sizable pickup in activity. Indeed, hiring and investment decisions likely came to a standstill as uncertainty over the Autumn Budget peaked," analysts at Deutsche Bank stated in a note dated Dec 9.

Looking ahead, the bank sees downside risks to its current 0.3% quarter-on-quarter projection for the final quarter of 2024.

> "Our latest nowcast models point to a tenth to two-tenths downside, based on recent survey and hard data, which also raise some marginal downside risk to our 0.9% annual growth projection for 2024. Big picture, we expect GDP growth to rise to 1.3% next year, with risks broadly balanced."

The UK’s gross domestic product increased by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to the previous quarter. This growth rate was slower than the 0.5% growth in the second quarter.

The International Monetary Fund forecasted the UK to grow by 1.1% in 2024, which is slower than previous periods but places the UK in the middle of the pack among the world's leading nations.