Biogen Inc Performance Review

Analyst Rating
Investing.com reports that UBS analysts have raised concerns regarding Biogen Inc’s (NASDAQ: BIIB) stock, stating there is more potential for downside than upside. The price target has been lowered from $234 to $202.

Earnings Estimate
They also revised the 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate down from $17.54 to $17.38. This reevaluation aligns with a change in the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, adjusted from 12.75x to 11x.

Stock Performance
This adjustment follows a 30% decline in Biogen’s shares year-to-date, contrasting with a 16% increase in the DRG index.

Leqembi Treatment Challenges
The cautious outlook stems from ongoing setbacks with Biogen’s primary growth asset, Leqembi, an Alzheimer’s treatment. Despite some investors finding the stock attractive following its recent decrease, analysts emphasize the potential for continuous revenue drops and forecast a three-year revenue CAGR of only 0.1%, which is below the 1.6% consensus estimate.

Investor Sentiment
Analysts have noted that despite negative sentiment, some investors are optimistic about a rebound due to a “cheap valuation,” potential turnaround in 2-3 years, and a large total addressable market (TAM) for Alzheimer’s treatment. However, UBS sees more downside risks.

Sales Forecast Reduction
The firm based its analysis on a survey of 30 physicians, which led to a 15%-19% reduction in Leqembi’s sales forecasts for 2025-2028. Administrative challenges and concerns regarding side effects were cited as factors hindering Leqembi’s sales.

Competition and Market Share
The anticipated competition from Eli Lilly’s Kisunla is expected to pressure Leqembi, with neurologists projecting Kisunla could capture 55%-60% of the market by the end of 2025 and 2026.

Portfolio Challenges
Broader issues with Biogen’s portfolio are highlighted, with the growth narrative considered fundamentally challenged. The US launch of Skyclarys is unlikely to spur growth in the near term.

Additionally, the Multiple Sclerosis (MS) portfolio is projected to decline amid competition, with a three-year forward CAGR expected at -14%, compared to the consensus of -12%. Competition and shifts towards BTK inhibitors in standard care are contributing to these challenges.