BEIJING (Reuters)

A bearish commentary by prominent economist Gao Shanwen on China's weak consumption, unemployment, and "dispirited" youth has vanished from the tightly controlled internet.

The removal of Gao's comments comes ahead of an upcoming meeting of Chinese leaders to set the 2025 economic agenda, including growth targets. China's economy has faced challenges this year due to a prolonged property crisis, high local-government debt, and sluggish consumption, prompting various measures by Beijing to stimulate the economy.

Gao remarked that high unemployment among youth is dragging down consumption, while spending among older demographics has plateaued since the COVID-19 pandemic. He mentioned that "the younger a province's population, the slower the consumption growth" he stated at an invitation-only investor conference, according to a transcript of his speech. Gao described China’s youth as "dispirited" and the middle-aged as disenchanted, estimating that GDP growth may have been overstated by 10 percentage points from 2021 to 2023.

His speech gained substantial traction on social media before being blocked, and local news reports carrying his comments were also made inaccessible. Efforts to access Gao’s blog on WeChat were also blocked, with notifications citing rule violations. Attempts to reach Gao for comments were unsuccessful, and inquiries to WeChat's operator Tencent went unanswered.

The Chinese Communist Party exercises significant control over domestic media and social media to maintain social stability and curb the spread of rumors and misinformation. Content deemed sensitive or critical of the economic situation is routinely expunged.

ONLINE CAMPAIGN

In a related incident, access to Fu Peng’s video social media account was blocked following his remarks at a conference in September. Fu indicated that weaker consumption is linked to declining property prices, resulting in negative equity for some middle-class homeowners. He stated that losses from real estate, a key component of household wealth, cannot be offset by other income sources. Fu also questioned whether the middle class’s spending growth was fueled more by real estate wealth than by rising incomes.

When checked, Fu's account on Friday displayed a notice indicating access was blocked. In October, the Cyberspace Administration of China announced a campaign to better regulate online news and information, pledging to rectify any illegal conduct amid rising scrutiny of independent content creators.

As the economic work conference approaches, state media reported that China is not necessarily committed to achieving specific GDP growth rates, with a growth pace of less than 5% deemed acceptable as there is no need for the "worship of speed." Government advisers indicated maintaining a growth target of around 5.0% for the next year.