Investing.com

U.S. President Donald Trump didn’t impose tariffs on ‘day one’ as many had feared. However, Barclays warns that markets shouldn’t get complacent for too long, and singles out April 1 as a key date to watch for changes to tariff policy, citing clues from the America First Trade Policy presidential memorandum.

Barclays stated, “President Trump did not impose tariffs on day one. Instead, he issued a presidential memorandum entitled ‘America First Trade Policy.’ Investors should read the memorandum as a blueprint for what to expect next on tariffs.”

The memorandum directs certain departments and agencies to review and issue reports by April 1, 2025. Barclays analysts believe these reports are likely to act as catalysts for new tariff proposals or adjustments to existing tariffs.

Additionally, April 1 is significant as it allows time for the Senate to confirm key positions, such as Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary and Jamieson Greer as U.S. Trade Representative. Subsequently, changes to tariff policy could be announced, likely taking effect 30 to 60 days later.

The presidential memo implies that various tariffs could be considered, including a universal tariff and specific tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada. Trump has already threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1, and up to 100% tariffs on China concerning TikTok. However, Barclays believes the timeline proposed in the memorandum is more substantial than these premature comments.

The memorandum also calls for investigations into the root causes of the U.S.’s annual trade deficits in goods and offers recommendations for solutions, which might include a global supplemental tariff or other policies. This indicates that countries and industries most vulnerable to targeted tariffs could be those with the largest trade deficits in goods with the U.S. according to Barclays.