Toncoin’s Bearish Structure

Toncoin has a strongly bearish structure on the daily chart. The steady whale selling shown in the distribution chart indicates that recovery might be difficult.

Toncoin (TON) has exhibited significantly reduced volatility in recent days. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted on X (formerly Twitter) that the Bollinger Bands were tightening around the TON price on the 12-hour chart. This signifies reduced volatility but could also indicate that a strong price movement is imminent.

Price Action and Caution for Buyers

The Toncoin network’s daily active addresses peaked back in August when the price retreated from its rally past $7.5. Since then, this metric has remained relatively subdued. Even the November rally failed to attract a notable number of participants.

Network growth, defined as the number of new addresses created, has also stagnated since October. In the last two weeks, both active addresses and network growth metrics have shown slight declines.

The supply distribution chart indicates an increase in addresses with small holdings (100 TON or fewer) since October, while addresses with 1–100 TON have remained stagnant since January 24th. Conversely, larger addresses have steadily decreased, indicating active selling.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) of Toncoin has dropped below November lows, maintaining September lows. The price has lost previous range lows and re-tested the $3.42 support level, which corresponds to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This crucial retracement was expected to hold; however, weak network activity and rising selling volume suggest potential further price declines.

The swing market structure is firmly bearish based on the daily chart. A resurgence in Bitcoin (BTC) might invigorate the altcoin market and potentially motivate Toncoin bulls. Until the $4.5 level is regained as support, swing traders should maintain a bearish outlook.