Decline in Russia's Seaborne Crude Oil Shipments

Overview
Russia's seaborne crude oil shipments have declined by about 11% since October due to maintenance at a key export terminal. Average daily exports are now 3.06 million barrels, down from 3.46 million two months prior.

Western Pressure and Sanctions
This decline coincides with intensified pressure from Western countries on Russia's shadow fleet of tankers, which was established to sustain oil export flows. Refineries operate at their highest weekly rate since mid-August, potentially limiting crude oil available for export. Additionally, Russia is under pressure to meet its OPEC+ production targets, extended until March.

In response, European nations have imposed stricter sanctions on vessels carrying Russian oil. The European Union recently added 42 oil tankers to its sanctions list, many of which are already sanctioned by the UK. Twelve European countries are also seeking tighter restrictions on tankers transporting Russian petroleum by requiring proof of protection against environmental damages.

Ukraine has pinpointed 238 tankers associated with Russia's shadow fleet and plans further sanctions against them. Currently, nearly two-thirds of the sanctioned tankers are idle, often found near Russian ports.

Additionally, Russia continues its ban on oil sales to foreign buyers adhering to the G7 price cap until the end of June, a measure linked to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine since 2022.

Strengthening Ties with India
Meanwhile, Russian oil exporters are enhancing partnerships with Indian buyers. Rosneft has signed a 10-year contract to supply 500,000 barrels of crude oil daily to Reliance Industries, starting in January.