Rivian's Full-Year Deliveries at Risk

Investing.com — Rivian's full-year deliveries may be at risk due to softening demand, analysts at JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) warn.

Earlier this month, the electric truck maker announced a 36% decline in third-quarter deliveries compared to the year-ago period, totaling 10,018 — the lowest mark in over a year and a half.

Meanwhile, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) reported producing a total of 13,157 vehicles at its Illinois factory, partially affected by a shortage of an undisclosed component used in all its products.

The supply constraints arose during the quarter and have worsened recently, leading Rivian to revise its annual production guidance down to approximately 47,000 to 49,000 units from the previous forecast of 57,000.

Despite the production decline, Rivian maintained its full-year delivery target at about 50,000 to 52,000 units. JPMorgan analysts noted this could imply stable demand, but they highlighted that the updated third-quarter figures indicate Rivian's inventories — production minus deliveries — rose by 3,139 units during the quarter. This marks its second-largest stockpile increase ever, significantly exceeding the historical average gain of 950.

The analysts stated, "The implied softer demand trend suggests at least some risk to the outlook for full-year deliveries." They raised concerns about how production cuts could impact Rivian's growth stock valuation, lowering their December 2025 fair value target for Rivian shares to $12 from $14, still implying a 20% upside from the current stock level.