Retirement of Cai von Rumohr

Cai von Rumohr, a venerable analyst in the Aerospace and Defense sector for over 50 years, has announced his retirement from TD Cowen, effective December 31, 2024. His responsibilities will be taken over by Gautam Khanna, his partner for 24 years, and Jack Ayers, who has been with TD Cowen for four years.

Reflecting on his extensive career, von Rumohr shared vital lessons and insights from the industry. He observed the remarkable evolution of the sector, recalling a time when Boeing used roller skates to deliver drawings to engineers, in stark contrast to today’s advanced technologies like 3D modeling and computer-aided design.

He discussed various investment considerations within the Aerospace and Defense field, including:
– Historical performance of defense stocks during presidential elections.
– The effects of unforeseen presidential decisions on defense budgets.
– Risks tied to long, fixed-price defense contracts.

Von Rumohr emphasized understanding technology’s influence, market desires, and consolidation strategies. He highlighted the necessity of cultural compatibility in acquisitions and emphasized the importance of staying updated on emerging technologies such as eVTOLs (electronic vertical takeoff and landing) and Urban Air Mobility (UAM).

He also underlined the importance of recognizing the risks and opportunities that technological advancements bring. For instance, he cited Airbus’s missed opportunity regarding enhanced aircraft engine reliability, which led to the cessation of A380 production in 2021.

His observations on the developing eVTOL and UAM industry were particularly notable, as he maintained that despite delayed certification targets, the technologies' carbon-neutral features, improved economics for short-range travel, and reduced noise levels make them disruptive forces that will only get better.

Von Rumohr’s retirement signifies the conclusion of a notable era at TD Cowen. His extensive insights and teachings will undoubtedly provide valuable guidance to those who follow in his footsteps.

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