Pierre Poilievre Leads Predictions for Canadian Prime Minister

Pierre Poilievre, the pro-crypto politician and head of Canada’s Conservative Party, is favored to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister following Trudeau’s resignation announcement on Monday.

Users of the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket have placed $257,000 in bets on Poilievre, giving him a strong 89% likelihood of winning the upcoming federal election expected this spring. The prime ministerial market, which opened on December 30, 2024, has accumulated a total trading volume of $412,095 as of Monday.

The market’s resolution states, “This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Pierre Poilievre is the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.'” Poilievre has consistently led the odds since the market opened last week.

Justin Trudeau has been the leader of Canada’s Liberal Party since 2013 and has served as prime minister since 2015. He announced on January 6 that he would step down from both positions after the Liberal Party selects his successor amid declining approval ratings and political challenges. A prediction market regarding Trudeau’s resignation saw odds jump from 19% to 82% before it resolved, exceeding $1 million in total trading volume.

In 2022, Poilievre disclosed that he owns shares in Purpose Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded fund based in Canada, and has advocated for individuals to have the option to invest in bitcoin.