Polymarket Users Bet on Trump’s Words with $5 Million

Polymarket users wagered nearly $5 million on what former President Donald Trump would say during his discussion with Tesla CEO Elon Musk on August 12.

Overall, 11 markets on Polymarket attracted this trading volume, featuring crypto-specific terms like bitcoin and crypto, alongside political topics such as civil war and censorship, as well as terms like tampon and weird. The popularity of these markets resulted in over 1,500 comments among users.

The largest amount was bet on Trump’s potential mention of “crypto”, followed by “MAGA” and “illegal immigrant”. Ultimately, Trump used three terms: MAGA, illegal immigrant, and tampon.

When Trump mentioned “MAGA”, the odds stood at 59%, meaning new betters would earn slightly less than double their stake. The odds for “illegal immigrant” increased from 46% upon its mention. Conversely, when he said tampon, the odds dropped to 7%, resulting in a 14X return for anyone who placed a bet on it.

“Congrats to my tamponbros,” joked one Polymarket user after that word was mentioned.

The odds for “crypto” experienced the biggest losses, with the betting market collapsing from a 65% probability to nothing during the conversation.

The discussion with Musk was held on his platform, X, via an audio feature called Space. It was delayed by around 40 minutes due to a DDoS attack, according to Musk. Topics discussed included immigration, inflation, and a previous assassination attempt on Trump.

Polymarket is a prediction market centered on crypto, where users trade tokens to signify outcomes for specific events. Buyers of “yes” tokens bet on Trump’s mention of a word, while “no” token buyers bet against it. Each market’s price ranges from $0 to $1 and resolves either way based on the outcome.

The platform has gained traction for betting on the U.S. election, with a total of $581 million wagered on potential election outcomes. Currently, Vice President Kamala Harris stands at 52%, while Trump is at 46%, down from a previous lead of 72%.