EIGEN Airdrop Bets Reverse on Polymarket

Polymarket bettors who took the “Yes” side on the EIGEN airdrop experienced a swift downturn after the Eigenlayer Foundation announced via X that the token unlock would occur on Sept. 30th at 9 p.m. Pacific Time. This timing is precisely one minute after the prediction’s settlement time of 8:59 p.m. Pacific Time (11:59 p.m. Eastern Time).

Prior to the announcement on X, earlier social media posts and documents from the Eigenlayer Foundation suggested a Sept 30th unlock, causing the “Yes” side of the Polymarket bet to surge to 97%. However, these posts failed to specify the time zone, while the Polymarket resolution referenced Eastern Time. Consequently, although the EIGEN token unlock is set for September 30th, it will technically be one minute into October 1st in Eastern Time, likely favoring the “No” side of the bet.

The “Yes” side quickly plummeted to 3% following the announcement of the unlock time.

In June, the Polymarket prediction resolution was amended to state that for the market to resolve as “Yes,” the airdropped tokens must be both unlocked and transferable; any locked tokens will resolve as “No.” Given these new criteria, it now appears the “No” side will ultimately prevail, despite an airdrop occurring. The market has seen volume just shy of $500,000.

Binance is set to commence trading of the Eigen token one hour after the removal of transferability restrictions. Pre-market trading platform Hyperliquid currently values EIGEN token derivatives at approximately $4.10, giving it an estimated market capitalization of around $6.8 billion. Users with staked tokens are subject to a 7-day withdrawal period to unstake their EIGEN.

EigenLayer enables users to deposit and stake ether, aiming to secure third-party networks or validated services. The platform’s total supply stands at 1.67 billion native tokens intended for a crypto-economic security framework called inter-subjective forking.

Despite significant growth in the first half of the year, Eigenlayer has witnessed nearly a 50% decline in its total value locked (TVL) since hitting its peak in June.