By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

Nvidia's Market Value Swing Expectations

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Options traders anticipate a nearly $300 billion fluctuation in Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s market value following the chipmaker's quarterly results on Wednesday, according to U.S. options market data.

Nvidia options implied an 8.5% swing in either direction post-results, which are due to be reported after market close, according to data from options analytics service ORATS. This aligns with the percentage movements seen over the last 12 quarters. Given Nvidia's market capitalization of $3.44 trillion, the projected swing is close to the largest ever—approximately $292 billion.

Such a move would exceed the market cap of about 95% of S&P 500 constituents.

Historically, Nvidia's post-earnings price movements have often fallen short of market expectations, although when significant moves do occur, they tend to be upward, noted ORATS founder Matt Amberson. Out of the last 12 quarterly earnings reports, five had price movements outside of market expectations, and all of those saw the stock price increase.

Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group, indicated that traders are slightly more optimistic about a potential significant upward move than a downward one. Nvidia's results, central to the generative artificial intelligence boom, could influence the broader market sentiment, particularly as investors refocus on Nvidia amid a recent slowdown in the post-U.S. election rally.

The S&P 500 has increased by 23% year-to-date, despite a decline last week. Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, commented, "The market will extrapolate whatever Nvidia says to the entire AI trade."

Nvidia has surpassed high Wall Street revenue expectations for the last eight quarters, but analysts now predict a slower growth pace. How the company addresses supply chain delays and issues is likely to influence its stock price.

Analysts expect the chipmaker to report third-quarter sales swelling 82.8% to $33.13 billion, based on data from LSEG.

On Monday, Nvidia shares closed down 1.3% at $140.15. For the year, the stock has risen about 180%, making it one of the top S&P 500 performers.