Newly Elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election, according to Polymarket bettors.

Odds Shift

Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian election, up from 26% a month ago. In contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances have decreased to 51%, down from 72% in February.

The next Canadian federal election is scheduled for October 20, 2025. However, under Canada’s Westminster system, a confidence motion against the minority Liberal government, if passed by the opposition Conservatives and NDP after Parliament resumes on March 24, could trigger an earlier election.

Polls and Predictions

Carney’s rise in odds coincides with a shift in polling data, reflecting a closer race between the parties. The Conservatives hold only a one-point lead over the Liberals, down from a 16-point lead according to Nanos Research. Observers attribute this shift to trade threats from the U.S., leading Canadians to prefer Carney’s business acumen.

Interestingly, this situation contrasts with last year’s U.S. election, where prediction markets favored Donald Trump, although the outcome was unexpected for some media consumers.

Crypto in the Campaign

Despite Poilievre’s ties to crypto, including a Canadian-issued BTC ETF and pro-blockchain comments, the upcoming campaign seems focused more on trade issues than cryptocurrency. Carney has yet to make any crypto-related statements in his new role as Liberal leader.