A Look at the Day Ahead in European and Global Markets

By Kevin Buckland

France remains at the center of Europe's focus on Tuesday, as the government teeters on the brink of collapse with no-confidence motions brought by both the right and left.

The final blow came from Prime Minister Michel Barnier's efforts to push a social security bill through parliament without a vote, setting up Wednesday's potential first no-confidence vote leading to the ousting of a French government since 1962.

This situation exacerbates Europe's political crisis as the year concludes. Germany faces snap elections after its government also collapsed, coinciding with Donald Trump's impending return to the White House, where he threatens substantial tariffs on Europe for insufficient purchases of American cars and agricultural products.

Nonetheless, France finds a silver lining in improved relations with Trump, who praised the reconstruction of the Notre-Dame Cathedral and plans to attend its reopening on Saturday—his first foreign trip post-election.

On the financial front, the euro remains under pressure, while pan-European STOXX 50 futures show an upward trend, buoyed by record highs on Wall Street.

The economic calendar in Europe is sparse today, but a pre-recorded interview with ECB board member Piero Cipollone will be broadcast at an event in Milan.

In the U.S., key speakers include Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler at separate events in Chicago and Detroit, respectively.

Today's macro highlight will be the U.S. JOLTS job openings report, a critical indicator for Fed officials, paving the way for Friday's significant monthly payrolls report.

Expectations for a quarter-point rate cut on December 18 have risen to 75% on CME's FedWatch Tool, a significant increase from 66% yesterday and 52% a week ago.

Key Developments Influencing Markets Today:

• ECB's Cipollone pre-recorded interview airing
• Chicago Fed's Goolsbee and Governor Kugler give remarks at separate events
• U.S. JOLTS job openings report (October)