Bitcoin’s Volatility Drops to Historic Lows

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade, indicating a significant structural shift in market behavior. According to new data from Ecoinometrics, Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility is near the 10th percentile, suggesting current market fluctuations are calmer than 90% of all weekly periods since 2015. This indicates that Bitcoin is maturing into a more stable asset, even amidst a strong upward trend.

This substantial decline in volatility, occurring even as Bitcoin rallied in May and reached new all-time highs, represents a notable change in Bitcoin’s risk profile, making it more attractive to new institutional investors.

A New Era of Stability: Bitcoin’s Risk Profile Is Changing

The heatmap, based on percentile rankings of Bitcoin’s weekly volatility over a 30-day rolling window, clearly illustrates this trend toward calmer market conditions.

Previously, particularly from 2016 to 2021, the chart revealed deep red zones, indicating high volatility. In contrast, the charts for late 2024 and 2025 are dominated by blue and green zones, denoting sustained periods of lower volatility.

Bitcoin’s Volatility Continues To Decline. Source: X

This shift implies Bitcoin is beginning to behave like a more mature financial asset, one that can provide strong returns without the erratic short-term price fluctuations that previously characterized it.

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For portfolio managers focused on risk management, this trend is crucial. Bitcoin’s newfound stability enables its inclusion in diversified portfolios without exceeding traditional risk thresholds, potentially attracting more capital from institutional finance.

Price Action Confirms Bullish Trend Within Ascending Channel

This backdrop of decreasing volatility is coinciding with Bitcoin’s price establishing a strong, bullish pattern on the weekly chart. As of June 9, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $107,841, forming a clear ascending channel on the weekly chart. This pattern features two upward-sloping parallel trendlines that capture higher highs and higher lows since late 2022.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart – Ascending Channel Pattern. Source: TradingView.com

An ascending channel is a bullish continuation pattern that displays consistent upward momentum within a defined range. The 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $85,136, serves as solid dynamic support, with every notable dip since mid-2023 finding support at this indicator.

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If this structure confirms with a breakout towards the upper boundary, Bitcoin’s price could rise by approximately 46% from the current level, targeting around $156,730 as indicated by the top of the projected channel.

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