Litecoin Price Analysis

Litecoin price is hovering near a crucial resistance level, with both fundamentals and technical indicators suggesting a potential surge of over 75% this year.

Litecoin (LTC) rose to a high of $128.37 on Thursday and is up approximately 60% from its lowest point this year.

Primary Catalysts

The primary catalyst for Litecoin is the increasing likelihood that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Litecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) later this year. Companies including Canary Capital, Grayscale, and CoinShares have filed applications for a spot Litecoin fund.

According to Polymarket, the probability of the SEC approving a spot Litecoin ETF has climbed to 85%, indicating strong market confidence in a listing. Another poll assigns a 52% probability that the agency will approve it by July 31.

Odds for proof-of-work coins such as Litecoin and Dogecoin (DOGE) receiving regulatory approval are significantly higher than for proof-of-stake tokens. The SEC views Litecoin and Dogecoin as digital commodities, while other tokens are categorized as securities.

Litecoin’s price has also increased due to rising demand in the futures market. Open interest in Litecoin futures climbed to $870 million on Wednesday, up from $420 million earlier this month. Rising futures interest signals growing investor positioning and speculation.

Technical Analysis

The weekly chart shows that Litecoin’s price has rebounded in recent weeks, moving above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average and surpassing the key resistance level at $114.05. This level formed the upper boundary of an ascending triangle—a pattern generally considered bullish in technical analysis.

Additionally, Litecoin has formed a slanted triple-bottom pattern, another bullish indicator. The token is also in the process of forming the second phase of the Elliott Wave pattern, where the third phase typically shows the strongest and longest movements.

Given these factors, Litecoin’s price could continue rising, with the next target at $225, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a 75% potential upside from the current price. However, this bullish outlook would be invalidated if Litecoin’s price falls below the support level at $80.