Prediction Market Odds for 2024 Election

On Monday, Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, adjusted the odds of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris winning the upcoming presidential election to 47%, while Donald Trump’s odds remained around 50%.

The market observed Trump’s odds surpassing Harris’ chances after they initially tied on August 26. Prior to this, Harris had held the lead over Trump nearly two weeks earlier this month.

The U.S. election results continue to be the largest prediction market on the platform, with a volume close to $777 million.

Last week, Trump released his fourth NFT trading card series, Series 4: The America First Collection, which has generated over $2 million in sales. He also hinted at a crypto project named World Liberty Financial, created by his sons. The specifics of Trump’s involvement and the project’s intended services remain unclear.

During the July Bitcoin conference, Trump pledged to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler if elected in November and emphasized he would halt U.S. bitcoin sales and establish a “strategic bitcoin reserve.”

On the other hand, Harris has not directly addressed cryptocurrency, but a campaign adviser mentioned her intent to support initiatives to bolster the digital asset sector.