Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal in 2025

Analysts at ANZ project that gold will continue to be a sought-after safe-haven asset in 2025, driven by ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Strong central bank purchasing is expected to bolster gold prices.

Price Forecast

Despite the firm U.S. dollar and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, ANZ forecasts moderate returns of about 10% for gold, with potential prices reaching $2,900 per ounce next year.

Geopolitical Risks

Factors such as heightened tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties related to Trump’s trade policies are likely to sustain demand for gold, according to analysts.

Demand from China and India

China’s economic initiatives and a fluctuating yuan are predicted to increase investment in gold bars, coins, and ETFs. India's gold consumption is also expected to remain robust, aided by rising incomes and lower import duties, with a projected 9% increase in jewellery demand.

Supply Dynamics

Although central banks are expected to keep buying, the pace will slow, with annual purchases projected at 850 tons in 2025, down from 950 tons in 2024. Major players include Russia, China, and India.

Price Resistance and Market Influence

Gold may encounter resistance between $2,780 and $2,790 per ounce, but could surge towards $2,900 if these levels are exceeded. Price movement will largely hinge on U.S. monetary policy and international geopolitical events.

This outlook reflects a cautious optimism about gold’s status as a hedge against increasing macroeconomic risks, suggesting it will retain a modest shine in the approaching year.