Gold and Bitcoin Diverge Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Gold has continued to soar to new highs while Bitcoin has dropped sharply over the past month—all while geopolitical risk and President Trump’s aggressive new trade policy rock financial markets.

Despite often being described as a form of “digital gold,” Bitcoin hasn’t been trading much like the real thing. Instead, it’s trading in line with U.S. equities—especially tech stocks—as macroeconomic uncertainty spooks traders.

But gold, which has traditionally held a status as the safe-haven asset, hit a new record price above $3,047 per ounce following news that Israel had broken its ceasefire with Hamas.

By contrast, Bitcoin is down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Over the past month, the picture is even bleaker: the asset has nosedived by more than 15%.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $81,967 a coin, nearly 25% below the all-time high mark of $108,786 it hit on the day President Trump was inaugurated.

The new commander in chief campaigned on helping the digital asset industry and slashing regulations. While the president has stuck to his promises so far—signing an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, among other pro-crypto moves—the unpredictable announcements of tariffs on major trading partners frightened traders and led to a sell-off of “risk-on” assets, including Bitcoin and top Nasdaq-listed tech stocks.

Bitcoin’s price has previously moved in line with gold. During the banking crisis of 2023, the biggest cryptocurrency’s correlation with tech stocks dropped, and it started to move with the precious metal as speculators flocked to store-of-value investments.

Though that may not be the case today, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas told Decrypt that the asset still needs time to mature into something with more predictable market movements.

“It’s too young to be settled down,” he said. “Because it’s got all this potential growth baked into it, I think it just acts like a tech stock.”

Will the orange coin eventually reach its potential as the “digital gold” its proponents describe? At least for now, they’re still acting like very different assets.

Edited by Andrew Hayward