German Elections Opinion Polls

Investing.com — In Germany, the latest opinion polls reveal that the center-right CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, is currently leading in the elections with 33% of the vote.

The far-right AfD is in second place with 18%, followed by the Social Democrats (SPD) at 16%. The Greens and the far-left BSW are trailing behind with 13% and 6% respectively.

The liberal FDP is polling at 4%, suggesting a potential failure to cross the required 5% threshold, which could mean they won’t be represented in the next Bundestag.

These opinion polls align with the UBS Evidence Lab Political Probability Monitor, a tool that tracks implied probabilities based on betting odds from leading bookmakers.

The monitor currently shows an 86% probability of the CDU/CSU winning the most seats, followed by AfD at 15% and SPD at 11%.

It's worth noting that in 2021, polls saw significant shifts in the two months leading up to the election. In July 2021, the SPD was trailing the CDU/CSU by a similar margin (15% and 30%, respectively).

However, on election day, the SPD managed to secure a win with 25% of the votes, surpassing the CDU/CSU who managed 22%.

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