Ford Motor Company Faces Challenges Ahead in 2025

Investing.com — Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) may face roughly $4 billion headwind in 2025, due to cyclical pressures and an uncertain cost outlook. Wolfe analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded the automaker to "underperform" from "peer perform".

> "While we expect 2025 to be challenging for all automakers, we see the most downside risk to Ford," Rosner explained.

The brokerage set a price target of $8 on the stock, indicating a 25.5% downside from its last close.

Rosner noted potential risks linked to price deflation and diminishing effects of inventory restocking, which he described as "exacerbated" by Ford’s inventory increase in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the company is dealing with unfavorable dynamics in its profitable Pro segment.

On the pricing front, Wolfe identified early signs of softening in key segments, specifically pickups, with Ford management expecting industry-wide pricing to decline in 2025. Aggressive discounting from competitors is also contributing to the downward pressure.

Moreover, production of Ford’s Super Duty trucks is expected to normalize after strong post-redesign demand, likely creating a substantial drag on earnings. The brokerage also anticipates substantial cash flow pressures arising from destocking-related impacts, which may surpass standard working capital metrics.