Bitcoin Traders Eye FOMC Meeting

Bitcoin traders are watching the Federal Reserve closely today following a pattern of strong price moves after past FOMC meetings.

Prominent market analyst Merlijn The Trader noted on X that “Bitcoin loves FOMC,” with 5 out of the last 7 meetings resulting in price increases. Bitcoin has rallied at least 10% immediately after the past three meetings, and notably surged 40% after the November 2024 meeting following a 16% rally in October 2024. In 2025, Bitcoin had gains of 18%, 10%, and 14% following FOMC meetings in April, June, and July, respectively.

With this historical pattern of positive price movement, Merlijn anticipates potential upside if similar conditions arise. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $117,558, down 1.2% in the past day, with a monthly gain of 9.2%.

No Rate Change Expected, Focus on Powell’s Comments

The FOMC decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET, with market data indicating a 97.9% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady, reflecting the current economic outlook and inflation readings.

However, the rate decision isn’t seen as the primary event. Traders are focused on Jerome Powell’s comments during the accompanying press conference, which could drive volatility. Analyst Cas Abbé pointed to the importance of this moment.

Recent meetings between Powell and political leaders raised speculation that Powell may adopt a more dovish tone, which suggests potential for rate cuts or looser financial conditions. If Powell signals such a shift, it could boost risk assets like Bitcoin, which is sensitive to Fed guidance.

Merlijn highlighted the correlation between rising global liquidity and Bitcoin’s price gains, noting that Bitcoin has tracked increases in Global M2 closely.

Bitcoin’s Price Analysis

Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern ahead of the FOMC meeting. The price has remained between $117,000 and $118,700 over the last 72 hours, with anticipated volatility as the pattern nears its apex. Technical signals indicate short-term weakness, although Bitcoin maintains its ascending trendline.

> BITCOIN LIQUIDITY IS STACKING BOTH SIDES | ETH COILING | ALTCOINS BLEEDING – BUT THE FOMC IS THE HEAT!
> Watch here:👇 Link
> — Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) July 30, 2025