Economic Growth Forecasts for 2025
Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.
Global Economic Outlook
World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, according to a Reuters poll published in October.
Brokerage Forecasts on Economic Indicators
Forecasts for Major Asset Classes
| Brokerage | S&P 500 | U.S. 10-year Yield | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS Global Research | 6400 | 3.80% | 1.04 | 145 | 7.60 |
| Goldman Sachs | 6500 | 4.25% | 1.03 | 159 | 7.50 |
| UBS Global Wealth | 6600 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.50 |
| Wells Fargo | 6500-6700 | 4.50%-5.00% | 0.98-1.02 | 158-162 | |
| Societe Generale | 6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 |
| Deutsche Bank | 7000 | 4.7% (Q4'25) | 1.03 | 7.50 | |
| Nomura | 135 | 4.25% | 1.03 | ||
| Morgan Stanley | 6500 | 3.55% (Q4'25) | 1.10 | 138 | 7.60 |
| J.P. Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.08 | 148 | 7.50 |
| BofA Global Research | 6666 | 4.25% | 1.10 | 160 | 7.40 |
| Wells Fargo (Q4'25) | 4.00% | 0.98 | 154 | 7.60 | |
| BMO Capital Markets | 6700 | ||||
| Jefferies | 6000 | 4.43% | |||
| Barclays | 6600 | 4.25% | |||
| Piper Sandler | 6600 | ||||
| Berenberg | 4.90% | 1.08 | 140 | 7.20 | |
| BNP Paribas | 3.65% (Q4'25) | 1.15 | 131 | ||
| Canaccord Genuity | 6325 | ||||
| Citigroup | 6500 | 4.20% (Q4'25) | 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 |
| HSBC | 6700 | ||||
| Evercore ISI | 6800 |
U.S. Inflation Estimates
| Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| J.P. Morgan | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.3% | 2.5% (Q4/Q4) |
| Barclays | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| Societe Generale | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| Deutsche Bank | 2.8% (Q4/Q4) | 2.6% (Q4/Q4) |
| UBS Global Wealth | 2.6% | |
| Citigroup | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| BofA Global | 2.4% | 2.3% (Q4/Q4) |
| Berenberg | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| BNP Paribas | 2.3% | |
| Nomura | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| ING | 2.4% | |
| Wells Fargo | 2.6% | |
| Jefferies | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| UBS Global Research | 2.5% |
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
| Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS Global Research | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 6.3% |
| Barclays | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 7.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 6.5% |
| J.P. Morgan | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
| UBS Global Wealth | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 5.9% |
| Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |
| Citigroup | 2.2% | 1.0% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 6.7% |
| Nomura | 2.2% | 1.0% | 5.8% | |||
| BofA Global | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 7.0% | |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 6.5% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.5% | |||||
| Berenberg | 2.4% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 6.5% | ||
| BNP Paribas | 2.1% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 6.7% | |
| Peel Hunt | 1.9% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 7.0% | |
| ING | 2.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | ||
| Jefferies | 2.4% |
- UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group.
- Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank.
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