Factbox-Brokerages dial down US recession forecasts amid tariff optimism

(Reuters) – Some of the major brokerages have revised downward their U.S. recession forecasts after a temporary tariff truce between the U.S. and China eased global trade tensions and sparked a rally in riskier assets this week.

Goldman Sachs, the first major brokerage to make this adjustment, lowered its recession probability from 45% to 35%. Barclays has dismissed recession risks altogether, while J.P. Morgan now estimates the likelihood of a recession to be below 50%.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 6,100 from 5,900.

Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

target yield target

UBS Global 5300 4.25% 1.12 150 7.60

Research

Goldman Sachs 4.35% 1.20 (next 135 (next 12 7.35 (next

6100 12 months) months) 12 months)

UBS Global 5800 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

Wealth

Management

Wells Fargo 5900-6100 4.00%-4.50% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Investment

Institute

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 6750 4.50% (Q4’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Deutsche Bank 6150 4.65% (Q4’25) 1.10 145 7.35

Nomura 4.15% 1.03 135 6.93

Morgan Stanley 6500 4% (Q4’25) 1.08 (Q4’25) 141 (Q4’25) 7.60

(Q4’25)

J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.14 (Q4’25) 140 (Q4’25) 7.60

BofA Global 5600 4.25% 1.15 165 7.30

Research

Wells Fargo 3.96% 0.98 (Q4’25) 154 (Q4’25) 7.60

(Q4’25)

BMO Capital 6100

Markets

Jefferies 5300 4.43%

Barclays 5900 4.00% (Q4’25) 1.06 (Q4’25) 144 (Q4’25) 7.50

(Q4’25)

Piper Sandler 6600

Berenberg 4.90% 1.10 140 7.30

BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 4.65% (Q4’25) 1.00 (Q4’25) 156 (Q4’25)

Canaccord 6325

Genuity

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 5800 4.20% (Q4’25) 1.05 139

ING 1.02 160 7.35

HSBC 5,600

Evercore ISI 6800

Peel Hunt 4.20% 1.11 (Q4’25)

RBC Capital 5550 4%

Markets

Oppenheimer 5950

Asset Management

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 3.5% 3.0%

J.P.Morgan 3.7% 4.4%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.5% (Q4/Q4)

Barclays 3.1% 2.5%

Wells Fargo 2.8% 2.8%

Societe Generale 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Bank 3.4% 3.6% (Q4/Q4)

Wells Fargo 3.5%

Investment

Institute

UBS Global 2.6%

Wealth

Management

Citigroup 2.7% 2.6%

BofA Global 2.9% 2.3% (Q4/Q4)

Research

Berenberg 2.9% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Nomura 3.0% 3.3%

ING 2.4%

Jefferies 2.3% 2.5%

UBS Global 3.2%

Research

Peel Hunt 3.2%

Real GDP Growth:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS Global 3.0% 1.4% 4.0% 0.5% 0.7% 6% (FY26)

Research

Goldman Sachs 2.1% 1.4% 4.0% 0.8% 1.0% 6.1%

Barclays 2.9% 1% 7.0%

0.9% 4.0% 0.5%

Morgan Stanley 2.9% 2.1% 4.5% 0.8% 1.4% 6.5%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 1.0% 4.3% 0.8% 0.7% 6.0%

UBS Global Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Management

Wells Fargo 2.7% 1.3% 4.5% 0.9% 0.8% 5.9%

Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

Citigroup 2.3% 1.4% 4.2% 0.8% 2.0% 6.7%

Nomura 2.8% 1.4% 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 5.9%

BofA Global 3.1% 2.1% 4.5% 0.9% 1.4% 6.6%

Research

Deutsche Bank 2.9% 1.7% 4.5% 0.5% 0.8% 6.5%

(Q4/Q4)

Wells Fargo 2.1% 1.0% 0.9%

Investment

Institute

Berenberg 2.8% 2.6% 5.0% 1.0% 0.9% 6.5%

BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.0% 1.1% 6.2% (March

2026)

Peel Hunt 1.5% 4.5% 0.9% 1.1% 6.3%

ING 2.0% 0.7% 1.4%

4.7%

Jefferies 2.4%

(Q4/Q4)

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank