Eth Rally Potential

According to Amberdata, ETH could rally higher if the U.S. spot ETH ETF staking is approved.
The options market is positioned for a $6K upside ETH target by December 2025.

Ethereum’s [ETH] recent 70% increase from April lows may signal the start of a larger upward trend targeting $3.5K-$6K, as suggested by crypto options analytics firm Amberdata.

In its weekly market report, Amberdata’s Greg Magadini stated:
> “There’s a strong case for ETH ‘catching-up’ as spot ETFs with staking rewards may catalyze institutional involvement and improve sentiment. No need to ‘call tops’ at this point.”

ETH Catalysts

The SEC has delayed its verdict on staking applications for spot ETH ETFs from Grayscale and Hashdex, extending the review period to between June and October.

However, many analysts, including Magadini, believe that this additional staking yield (3% annually) could significantly boost demand for spot ETH ETFs, thereby increasing ETH prices.

Magadini noted strong bullish inflows targeting $3.5K and $6K by year-end, indicating traders are preparing for such an outcome:
> “Last week’s ETH block trades exhibited robust bullish activity in EOY December options. $3,500 / $6,000 call spreads were traded for 30,000x contracts across 10 distinct transactions, totaling just over $7 million in premiums.”

Call options are considered bullish bets that protect against upside movements, while puts focus on downside risks and reflect a bearish outlook.

In summary, traders anticipate ETH to reach between $3.5K and $6K by December 2025.

On-chain data supports the continued upward trend. Since April, over 1 million ETH (approximately $2.38 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges from April to mid-May.

This trend reflects broader accumulation amid a renewed altcoin surge, significantly decreasing selling pressure and further enhancing the potential rally.

Despite the optimistic mid-term outlook, ETH’s short-term momentum has slightly weakened. Crypto trader and analyst Income Sharks pointed out that ETH’s On Balance Volume (OBV) has declined, suggesting reduced volume that could impede the rally.

Additionally, he noted the formation of a bearish head and shoulder pattern that could pull ETH lower if confirmed.

Nevertheless, on the daily price chart, ETH displayed a golden cross, a formation that can often precede substantial rallies.