Ethereum Price Breakdown

After trading at the same support level for the past couple of years, Ethereum’s price has broken down below $2,000 for the first time since late 2023.

Analysis of Ethereum’s long-term holders shows significant concern, as the current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) level stands at 0.38, indicating a shift from hope to fear. Previously, NUPL levels of this size indicated significant corrections, such as in May 2022 when NUPL dropped below 0.35 and led to a drop in ETH’s price.

If fear escalates, ETH could continue falling below current support levels, heading towards major supports that may present long-term buying opportunities. However, if the mood improves and NUPL returns to 0.45, ETH could retest levels above $2,500, with a possibility of exceeding $3,000 in a bullish continuation pattern. These NUPL readings confirm market indecision, with the price at a key level.

Another fall would confirm capitulation, while holding current levels could lead to a rally.

Ethereum Price Breaking Long-term Support Level

Ethereum’s price breakdown has dented investor confidence as historic points of support have failed. However, ETH does find some support around $1,950, linked to the October 2023 retest of breakout, which remains intact.

The $2,000-$2,100 range is crucial for a potential reversal on larger timeframes. If ETH can reclaim this range, momentum should push it up to $2,400-$2,500, alleviating short-term bearish concerns.

Failure to hold above $2,000 could expose ETH to further weakness, with $1,750 being the next significant level to watch. A break below $1,750 would likely trigger serious correction, potentially reaching levels not seen since early 2023.

The $1,750-$2,100 region is a battleground where price action is uncertain. Holding above $2,000 signals bullish momentum, but slipping below $1,750 could lead to liquidations, contributing to bearish momentum.

Currently, Ethereum is attempting to reclaim $2,000, indicating a potential turning point.

Historical ETH’s Performances for Q1

This situation comes as ETH is set to finish its worst Q1 ever, reflecting dire investor fears. Traditionally, Ethereum performs well in Q1; for instance, in 2021, it rose by +120%, and in 2020, it had a +21% increase, while 2022 saw a modest loss.

Q1 2024 has been markedly different, with ETH struggling to reach key levels, experiencing a double-digit decline—an anomaly compared to previous bullish cycles.

Data from January, February, and March reveals ongoing weakness, marked by failed breakouts and increasing selling pressure.

Ending Q1 in the red would mark the first historical decline after such a rocky start, suggesting a bearish sentiment heading into Q2 unless ETH can recover above $2,100. Otherwise, the path appears set for testing $1,750, confirming a long-term bearish trend.

However, if ETH can replicate historical Q2 reversals like the +55% bounce seen in April 2020, there remains potential for recovery. The ensuing weeks will be crucial in determining if ETH will rebound or if sub-$1,750 levels become reality.