Market Analysis of Ethereum (ETH) and Crypto Landscape

According to the Global Capital Markets analysis team at the Kobeissi Letter, Ethereum (ETH) has lost nearly 50% of its value since the late-2024 bull market initiated by President Donald Trump’s election victory. The global crypto market also reflects a downturn, down 30% from its 3-month peak of $3.895 trillion, per Coingecko.

This week, most of the cryptocurrency market has been bearish, exacerbated by a hack that resulted in the Bybit crypto exchange losing approximately $1.4 billion in Ether tokens.

> Ethereum is down nearly 50% from its highs seen after the election in late-2024.
> Crypto markets as a whole are nearing $1 trillion in losses over the last 2 months.
> A sentiment shift is an understatement.
> Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real-time analysis as this develops.
> — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 28, 2025

On Friday, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap was trading at $2,102, which reflects a decrease of over 10.5% within the last 24 hours and 22.8% over the past week. Market data indicates that ETH has not dipped to these levels since December 2023.

Ethereum losses continue, following market downward trend

Data from Coinglass reveals that about $211 million in Ethereum liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, with long positions constituting $180.89 million of this total and short positions at $29.20 million. The rapid price drop has led to forced sell-offs, further pressuring ETH’s price.

Several analysts on the social platform X, such as cybersecurity engineer Matt C, suggest that Ether’s struggles can be linked to the recent Bybit hack, which reportedly spawned one of the largest ETH holders ever.

> To the Ethereum holders thinking any of this helps price:
> 1. The Hack created one of the biggest $ETH whales ever.
> 2. Once safely able, they will start net-selling their stolen stack.
> 3. Current holders who Don’t want to FAFO will sell Before the hackers can.
> 4. TLDR $ETHBTC 📉
> — Matt C⚡️ (@mithcoons) February 22, 2025

The Bybit hackers, identified as North Korea’s Lazarus Group by crypto security expert ZachXBT, have begun moving and swapping the stolen funds, potentially worsening ETH’s situation.

Currently, ETH is near a critical support level of $2,000, a psychological threshold that has historically influenced the asset’s short-term trajectory. A fall below this could result in further drops, with the next support level at $1,800.

Technical analysis spells doom for ETH holders

On the daily chart, Ethereum’s price movement has created a clear descending channel. Recently, it entered a consolidation phase below $2,300, and its next breakout could dictate its future pathway.

If Ethereum manages to surpass the $2,500 resistance, a rebound towards $2,870 might occur, targeting $3,400. However, failure to maintain above $2,000 could lead to continued price declines over the next couple of weeks.

The breach of the $2,230 support level has rendered a negative outlook for short-term trading, raising the chances of further declines. Should Ethereum fail to recover, resistance at $2,230 is likely to impede any recovery attempts, limiting rebounds to $2,400.

Why is the crypto market down today?

The broader cryptocurrency market is witnessing a significant downturn, as optimism about President Trump’s pro-crypto stance wanes. All cryptocurrencies in the top 20 by market cap, except stablecoins, have dropped at least 10% in value over the past week.

The largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin, has fallen below $80,000, 27.6% away from its all-time high of $108,786 on January 20. Bitcoin liquidations have surged to nearly $500 million in the last day, primarily from long positions, with the most significant market withdrawals recorded from Bybit and Binance.

The crypto community still hopes for a favorable U.S. regulatory environment, but uncertainty resulting from the Trump administration’s unclear policy direction has made investors more cautious.

On February 24, Trump confirmed that significant tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect next week, taxing goods 25% more per an order issued on February 1. The market reacted negatively, echoing sentiments from earlier tariff discussions launched by Trump.

Among the substantial losers, Ether competitor Solana has observed one of its worst weekly performances since 2024, with a decline of 27% over the past week, signaling a potential freefall as bulls battle bears at the $125 support level.