Ethereum’s Netflow Pattern and Market Insights

Ethereum (ETH) saw a 10% price bounce since Tuesday’s lows. Such a bounce ahead of the U.S. Fed Meeting appeared ominous, but there were no unexpected revelations. The economic growth has been slower than expected for the current year, with similar expectations for next year. Also, the Federal Reserve signaled two rate cuts this year, creating a more uncertain outlook.

This is not terrible news for the crypto market, as Bitcoin (BTC) bounced to $87.5k before seeing a 1.86% retracement at press time. Ethereum was down 2.36% from its previous day’s high at $2,069. A recent report noted that Ethereum’s network activity was at its lowest in 2025 – a warning sign for investors.

Piecing Together the Clues for Ethereum

On the 1-day chart, ETH maintains a strong bearish trajectory. The OBV is below local highs, although the RSI appears to signal a bullish shift. The move beyond $2k seems like a statement but could also be a liquidity hunt.

Given the current structure, it seems likely that the price may head lower again. The buying volume necessary for a bullish structure shift is not present, according to the OBV. Market sentiment is also broadly fearful at press time.

Exchange netflows track the flow of ETH into and out of exchanges. Higher inflows imply more selling pressure, while an increase in outflows suggests accumulation among market participants.

Since mid-January, there have been four significant spikes in ETH inflows to exchanges. Local peaks in netflows occurred on January 24, February 19, March 3, and March 14. The first three spikes were followed by sharp price drops within a few days. The early March inflows occurred during Ethereum’s drop from $2.8k to $1.8k.

If this pattern holds true, worries about price action are even more likely to be justified. Bears could initiate another price drop in the coming days.

The taker buy/sell ratio measures the taker (market order) buy volume to sell volume in perpetual trades. A ratio over 1 indicates that taker buy orders are dominant, suggesting bullish sentiment.

Over the past three weeks, bearishness has been prevalent. The taker ratio has shown that selling pressure is stronger, although it began to change over the past two days, which led to a brief climb of the 7-EMA (purple) above 1.

This ascent was short-lived, however. At press time, the 7-EMA of the taker ratio was negative once again, indicating a possible price drop. Combined with insights from price action and exchange netflows, it seems likely that Ethereum may fall to $1,750 or lower.