ENA Market Analysis

• ENA is testing a descending channel resistance, with 94% of holders either underwater or at breakeven.
• Retail and investor accumulation grows, while derivatives activity points to breakout-driven volatility.

Ethena (ENA) has been trading within a steep descending channel since late 2024, preventing any bullish recovery attempts over the months.

Currently, the price tests the upper boundary of this zone near $0.36, slightly above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is at $0.3479 as of the latest report.

Historically, this trendline has rejected upside moves, yet the current consolidation around resistance suggests potential breakout momentum.

A daily close above $0.37 could lead to targets of $0.45 and higher. Verification will depend on volume expansion and surmounting $0.41, where significant resistance resides.

Underwater Holders as a Barrier

Despite recent price stability, ENA is under considerable pressure from trapped holders. Only 5.53% of wallets are in profit, with 25.39% out of the money. An impressive 69.08% sit at breakeven near the $0.34 to $0.41 price range, creating a strong psychological resistance. Many holders may sell to mitigate their losses, which could impede any technical breakout unless demand escalates considerably.

Retail and Investor Effect on ENA’s Future

In the last 30 days, whale holdings have decreased by 3.63%, indicating that large entities are cutting their exposure. Conversely, mid-tier investors and retail participants have increased their holdings by 19.15% and 10.44%, respectively, signaling rising confidence among smaller players. However, a lack of strong whale participation could weaken breakout potential unless new large buyers appear. Retail enthusiasm alone may not suffice to breach resistance levels significantly.

Accumulation Trends

ENA is currently experiencing $10.53 million in spot outflows compared to $7.83 million in inflows, continuing the trend of more tokens leaving exchanges than entering. Historical indicators show that consistent outflows often reflect increased investor confidence and reduced immediate selling pressure.

This trend supports a bullish outlook, provided it aligns with favorable price movements. Sustained accumulation and tightened supply could eventually necessitate a price increase, provided the broader market remains favorable.

Anticipating Volatility

Open Interest for ENA rose by 10.51% to $484.47 million, suggesting increased activity in derivatives markets and renewed speculative interest. Traders may be positioning for significant price movements. If the price surpasses resistance, existing short positions could face a squeeze, leading to a rapid rally. Nevertheless, high Open Interest also introduces the risk of heightened volatility in both directions.

Hence, while this metric indicates a potential breakout, it also calls for cautious optimism until confirmed by aligning price and volume movements.

ENA occupies a critical position; if bulls can overcome channel resistance and manage selling pressure near breakeven zones, targets may reach $0.45 and beyond. However, success depends on sustained inflows, ongoing accumulation, and concrete breakout confirmation above $0.41.