Bitcoin Surge Amid Policy Changes

Bitcoin has surged to new record highs as investors position for potential policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump, who has shown enthusiasm for crypto assets.

Since November 4, Bitcoin has climbed over 30%, fueled by Trump’s campaign promises, which include the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the emergence of a new Congress featuring pro-crypto lawmakers.

Despite the momentum, UBS strategists caution that cryptocurrencies remain a speculative play rather than a foundational element of investment portfolios.

Specifically, they feel skeptical about crypto’s ability to penetrate key, transformative real-world applications. Moreover, strategists note that adding crypto can introduce significant volatility into portfolios.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s performance, UBS highlights a positive 0.31 correlation with global equities, coupled with an annualized volatility of 78.8%. This correlation suggests Bitcoin often moves in tandem with stock markets but experiences far more pronounced fluctuations.

Since 2014, Bitcoin has faced three major drawdowns of over 70%, with recovery periods averaging around three years, according to UBS.

“Instead, we continue to hold a positive view on global and US equities and believe that the macro backdrop is favorable for this year’s equity rally to gain further ground,” strategists led by Mark Haefele note.

They expect robust US economic growth to sustain strong corporate earnings. While upcoming retail sales data should provide further insights, recent figures have shown a firm growth foundation.

October’s non-manufacturing PMI reached its highest since July 2022, and Q3 GDP grew by 2.8%, led by consumer spending. Strategists project S&P 500 earnings growth at 11% this year and 8% in 2025, reflecting robust economic conditions.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve remains on an easing path, having cut rates twice this year, with UBS anticipating a further 25-basis-point reduction in December.

“We see a further 100bps of rate reductions in 2025. Historically, Fed rate cuts in nonrecessionary periods have been favorable for equities,” the bank writes.

The AI sector also remains a key driver of equity growth, despite potential volatility from US tech export controls and tariffs.

Strategists point out that Big Tech’s commitment to AI investment continues to be strong, supporting their recent increases in earnings growth forecasts for the sector to 22% for 2024 and 18% for 2025.

“We believe longer-term investors are better advised to take advantage of potential tech volatility in the near term to build up sufficient AI exposure,” Haefele and his team said.

“In addition to tech, we like the utilities and financials sectors. Globally, we also favor Asia ex-Japan equities and see value in Eurozone small and mid-caps.