Enel's Updated 2025-2027 Guidance

Enel's (ETR:ENEI) updated 2025-2027 guidance presents a mixed yet cautiously optimistic outlook.

Financial Projections

The utility giant projects the following EBITDA ranges:
– FY25: €22.9-23.1 billion
– FY27: €24.1-24.5 billion
This indicates an approximate 8.2% growth midpoint from 2024 to 2027.

Net income guidance shows modest increases, and notably, there’s a shift in dividend policy, raising the dividend per share floor from €0.43 to €0.46 for the FY25-27 period, reflecting a potential yield of 6.8%.

Key Investment Areas

Enel will intensify its focus on regulated grids, which will account for 60% of the revised gross capital expenditure of €43.1 billion—an increase of 20% from the previous plan. Renewables will remain a central focus, targeting a robust internal rate of return (IRR) spread of 300 basis points above the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Debt Management

Despite a positive growth trajectory, Enel anticipates a rise in net debt, forecasting a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.5x by FY27, up from 2.3-2.4x in FY26. This strategy aims to balance grid expansion with selective renewable investments.

Analyst Ratings

Analysts at Jefferies remain optimistic, maintaining a "buy" rating and increasing their price target by 12% to €9.00, indicating a 33% upside from current levels. Jefferies notes that although consensus estimates align closely with Enel’s targets, potential risks include regulatory uncertainties and fluctuating power prices.