Long-term bitcoin holders (LTH) are beginning to take profits after the largest digital asset by market capitalization crossing the long-anticipated $100,000 milestone, according to CryptoQuant. Data from the onchain analysis firm shows a notable increase in the "long-term holder spent output profit" ratio (LTH-SOPR), which measures the profit level of long-term bitcoin investors by comparing the selling price of their coins to the price they originally paid.
“Long-term holders (LTH) have been taking profits as bitcoin prices rallied above $100,000, as shown by the LTH SOPR increasing towards four on our charts, indicating that coins sold by long-term holders have realized profits of four times their original purchase price,” CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno told The Block. “However, this is a normal phenomena during bitcoin bull markets and the profit taking is still far from extreme levels."
CryptoQuant's bitcoin long-term holder metric has increased since the beginning of December. Image: CryptoQuant.
Macroeconomic factors at play
As bitcoin trades above $100,000, cryptocurrency market participants will be closely watching macroeconomic indicators, particularly the upcoming U.S. jobs report. Scheduled for release on Dec. 6, 2024, this report could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions, impacting bitcoin’s trajectory.
“Economists anticipate around 200,000 new jobs in November, rebounding from October’s weak numbers caused by hurricanes and labor strikes,” Bitfinex Head of Derivatives Jag Kooner told The Block. "A robust jobs report could lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider the pace of interest rate cuts, potentially opting for a more gradual approach, a scenario that might strengthen the U.S. dollar and apply downward pressure on risk assets."
However, interest rate traders currently anticipate a 25-basis-point cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 18, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 72.1% probability. Lower interest rates generally benefit bitcoin by reducing borrowing costs, increasing market liquidity, and weakening the U.S. dollar.
Institutional and political momentum
Beyond monetary policy factors, institutional interest and political sentiment continue to support bitcoin’s rally. WeFi co-founder Maksym Sakharov stressed how institutional investors have been steadily accumulating bitcoin, with many seeing it as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty as global trade braces for the impact of Donald Trump's proposed tariffs.
Sakharov highlighted the role of these investors in driving demand. "Institutional accumulation remains a key driver of bitcoin’s price momentum," he told The Block. "Additionally, optimism about pro-crypto policies under the current administration has bolstered market confidence, and this combination of institutional buying and favorable political sentiment contributed to bitcoin’s current rally.”
Sakharov added that a dovish Federal Reserve move at the next FOMC meetings, combined with institutional activity, could push bitcoin’s price further into uncharted territory.
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