Citi Research Raises Gold Price Forecasts

(Reuters) – Citi Research has raised its near-term and 2025 average gold price forecasts due to trade wars and geopolitical risks under U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside robust central bank purchases.

The bank upgraded its three-month price target to $3,000 per ounce from $2,800 and hiked its 2025 average forecast to $2,900 per ounce from $2,800.

> “The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0 with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification or de-dollarization trend and supporting emerging markets official sector gold demand,” Citi said in a note on Thursday.

Trump recently imposed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports into the U.S., prompting China to respond with its own tariffs, renewing the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. However, Trump also suspended his threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada at the last minute.

Spot gold hit a record high of $2,882.16 on Wednesday, driven by uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff policies.

Citi noted that despite the record pace of global gold reserve buying in recent years, “we still expect official sector gold demand to stay robust at above 1,000 tons per year over 2025-2026.”

Global gold demand, including over-the-counter trading, rose by 1% to a record high in 2024, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), who also mentioned that central banks sped up their purchases in the fourth quarter.

In its base case, Citi does not foresee gold being part of any blanket tariff during the second quarter of 2025.

> “Gold trading (COMEX vs loco London) implies a 20% chance of Trump including gold in a 10% blanket tariff on all U.S. imports as of February 5, lower than the 50-60% implied probabilities for copper, silver and platinum,” added the bank, referring to U.S. and UK gold markets.

Gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses have surged as market players sought deliveries to hedge against possible import tariffs.