By Ethan Wang and Joe Cash

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports likely expanded faster in December, as producers hurried to shift inventory before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House and impending trade risks.

Outbound shipments were expected to rise 7.3% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast from 17 economists in a Reuters poll, an increase from 6.7% in November.

Imports in December likely shrank 1.5%, narrowing from a 3.9% drop the previous month, as factory managers sought to secure tech products ahead of anticipated tighter U.S. semiconductor export controls.

The upcoming data indicates sustained strength in China’s exports despite broader economic challenges, including a prolonged property market crisis and deflationary pressures.

However, opinions among China watchers vary. JP Morgan predicted a 7.9% increase in exports, while Standard Chartered expected slower growth at 5.4%.

Most economists agreed that imports have contracted for three consecutive months, though Standard Chartered forecasts a modest 1.5% growth.

South Korea, a leading indicator of China’s imports, reported an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December.

Barclays Research anticipates exports will remain resilient at the beginning of 2025 as exporters continue to front-load orders. However, uncertainties over Trump’s tariff threats could spark a trade war between the U.S. and China.

Trump proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports but denied reports of his team considering a reduction to only critical imports amid inflation concerns.

Trade tensions with the EU are also high, with EU tariffs up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles straining relations.

In response, Beijing has targeted European goods like brandy with anti-dumping investigations as negotiations continue over tariff reductions.

Economists urge China to rebalance its economy by shifting focus from investment and exports to consumption to prevent prolonged low growth.

President Xi Jinping has pledged more proactive policies to spur growth in 2025, with recent commitments to vigorously boost consumption and expand domestic demand.

According to Reuters, the government expects to maintain an economic growth target of around 5% this year.

China’s December trade surplus is forecast at $99.8 billion, up from $97.4 billion in November.